Long-term energy scenarios: First-year campaign findings

The clean energy transition presents an unprecedented challenge for decision makers. Low-cost renewables, a smarter and more flexible power grid, and greater numbers of vehicles and other systems running on electricity require a forward-looking approach to energy planning.

Long-term energy scenarios (LTES) can trigger productive policy debates and help to shape long-term visions for the energy future. By exploring socio-technical pathways over c. 20+ years, planning rooted in LTES helps governments to prepare in advance for key interventions, to recognise shorter-term challenges and opportunities, and make well-informed investment decisions.

A collaborative campaign, launched at the 9th Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) in May 2018 and co-ordinated by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), calls for wider adoption and improved use of model-based LTES. This brochure highlights findings from the first-year of the LTES campaign.

LTES campaign themes:

  • STRENGTHENING DEVELOPMENT
  • IMPROVING USE
  • BUILDING CAPACITY

Focusing on CEM countries, the campaign explores ways to strengthen scenario development, improve the use of scenarios in strategic decision-making, and build the institutional capacity for scenario planning.

Digitalisation, decentralisation and electrification have all started to change consumer behaviour and create new business models. At the same time, countries face the urgent need to decarbonise energy use to meet the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement.  Long-term planning, consequently, must grapple with unprecedented technology, market and policy uncertainties.

Energy modelling tools, which quantify the implications of different technology choices and help to highlight crucial interdependencies, are a vital component of LTES development. At the same time, stakeholder consultations at multiple levels can enrich the qualitative side of scenarios for the future.

Read all the findings here.


Agriculture and forestry

General: Quick-links to Observatories’ methodologies: Nord Pas-de-Calais region OREGES (Rhône-Alpes region) ROSE (Ile-de-France region)

Approximated EU GHG inventory: proxy GHG estimates for 2015

This EEA report provides estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the European Union (EU) and its Member States for 2015, covering the full GHG inventory (all sectors, except land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and all gases).

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), November 2014

. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – IPCC‘s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides a clear and up to date view of the current state of scientific knowledge relevant to climate change. It consists of three Working Group (WG) reports and a Synthesis Report (SYR). Further information about the outline and content and how the […]

Commission welcomes approval of improved EU rules for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions, including forestry and agriculture

March 12, 2013: The European Commission welcomes the European Parliament’s approval of two new laws to improve EU rules on monitoring and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions, including those from forestry and agriculture. It is expected that the Council adopts these laws, after which they will be published in the Official Journal and will enter into force.